Brain Fog
How is the ordinary citizen supposed to react to the chain of events set in train by the launch of Trump’s tariff war? We are being bombarded daily by a string of extraordinary headlines for which nothing in our past experience could possibly have prepared us.
The President of the United States has bragged in public about the number of foreign leaders queuing up to “kiss his ass”. Canadians, some of the nicest and mildest people on the planet, have been stirred to fury and are reported to be boycotting any product made in or associated with their American neighbours, the very people they have lived peacefully alongside for generations. A man snatched off the street by law enforcement agents without just cause or due process has been deported to another country where he sits in jail and the very government that perpetrated the misdeed defies court orders to bring him back. International tourists with valid visas are reported to have been arrested and jailed on arrival, then deported. European officials going on duty to America are reportedly being issued with burner phones in order to preserve security.
You could be forgiven for asking yourself : has the world gone mad? To which the only honest answer must be: well some parts of it have.
The first reaction of most Hongkongers is likely to be to question what any of this has to do with us. After all, we are the world’s freest economy, no tariffs, no quotas, we don’t even have anti-dumping legislation. If this whole fuss is supposed to involve “reciprocal” tariffs then ours must be zero, right? Apparently not because despite our status as a separate member of the World Trade Organisation, the world’s largest economy, which established the WTO in the first place, has decided unilaterally to ignore its own rules and treat us as if for trade purposes we were part of the mainland. Hong Kong companies are very active traders, but most products are re-exports of goods produced elsewhere, sometimes shipped via Hong Kong port, but sometimes shipped direct to the destination market. So tariffs on those goods would still apply even if a way could be found to exempt our domestic exports.
All in all the trade war is therefore bound to adversely affect Hong Kong’s economy and some people here might lose their jobs as a result. Then there are the risks of inflation. Imposing tariffs pushes up prices and sooner or later those increases are going to work their way through the supply chain, so local consumers will be affected also.
These developments are bound to affect local sentiment towards the United States, and the impact will not be limited to trade matters. Thousands of students from Hong Kong study in American high schools, colleges and universities. Given the anti-China sentiments being propagated by some parties, many parents may be reluctant to continue to send children there and shell out for the higher fees. They will be asking themselves whether their children will still be safe on the streets or on campus. Quality education is also available in the UK, Australia and Canada where fees are generally lower, streets might be safer and with less risk of arrest on campus. Our own universities are also of top quality.
There may be calls for Hongkongers to follow the example of their Canadian counterparts and start to boycott American products especially if local employers are being forced to lay off staff. I suspect prices will be the key determining factor for the time being as we are a frugal community, But sentiments could harden if the crisis continues. I recently found myself looking at a Club menu where an expensive Australian steak and a cheaper one from America were listed side by side. I asked myself whether I should pay more for the former. After all, the country probably needs the money more having been suckered in to signing the larcenous AUKUS defence deal. Economy won out this time but I will be talking to Club management about sourcing from elsewhere. The other American product I buy regularly is grapefruit juice from Florida. Surely an enterprising company from somewhere in the region (Philippines, anyone) could spot the market opportunity and grow grapefruit there.
Then there is the question of physical travel to the United States. Many of us have friends and relatives there and like to pay them a visit. It is also a fine tourist destination in its own right. One of the best holidays I ever had was the drive from New York to San Francisco in the bicentennial year, visiting many of the places named in James Michener’s famous book. Media reports suggest critical opinions are no longer welcome in the land of the free. I have to wonder if a column like this which is less than complimentary could get my name on a list of those to be denied a visa. Or worse still, given a visa in Garden Road but then arrested on arrival in Los Angeles and shipped off to El Salvador. I have sensitive skin and am not sure it could survive all the tattoos.
And all this is so unnecessary. Hong Kong people are deeply imbued with Americana, especially in entertainment. We even have our own Disneyland. We love the music, everyone has their own favourite artist and performance. If there is a more moving love song than Diana Ross “When you tell me that you love me” then I have yet to hear it. But in present circumstances, maybe Barbra Streisand “The Way We Were” would be more appropriate.