The Myths of 2047
There are still more than 30 years to go but already a lot of nonsense is being talked about what will happen to Hong Kong in 2047.
Let’s get the subject of land leases dealt with up front. Some people seem to think that all the leases in the SAR will expire on 30 June 2047 (the end of the "50 years unchanged" pledge). There have even been reports that banks are starting to be cautious about granting mortgages for long periods and so on. This is completely wrong. Under the Basic Law, all the land and other resources in Hong Kong are state assets and the SAR Government is specifically authorised to manage those assets on behalf of the Central Government.
That is why the Lands Department is able to grant a new 50 year lease in respect of every plot of land it sells this year. Those leases will therefore run until 2066. Indeed, since 1997, virtually every grant of land has been for 50 years from a current date so there are already many hundreds that run past 2047. The most prominent exception to the rule is the site of Hong Kong Disneyland which has a 100 year lease (technically, 50 years plus guaranteed right of renewal for a further 50) granted in 1999.
Now of course there are some leases which will expire in 2047. These fall broadly into two categories: all the New Territories leases granted under British administration were set to expire in June 1997; and all land sales after the Joint Declaration came into force in 1985 were for the balance of British administration plus 50 years. All the leases in the first category were extended for 50 years by a single piece of legislation. The obvious thing to do, probably in the 2020s, is to have a similar piece of legislation to extend both categories for a further 50 years past 2047.
But it’s not just about land, is it. What about the currency, what about the legal system and the other aspects of our daily lives. Some have even claimed that the Basic Law itself "expires". To them I say: read it again. There is no reference to an expiry date, just a guarantee that the systems prevailing in Hong Kong will endure for 50 years. That is a clear minimum, but there is no corresponding reference to a maximum. So the guarantee might theoretically run out, but the systems themselves can continue. After all, when you buy a new washing machine, the warranty might expire after a few years but you still have the machine itself. A better analogy might be marriage vows. If you promised to love someone for 50 years, it doesn’t mean you are automatically divorced after that time and can start to hate them. (You might choose to do both, but the point is neither is automatic).
The Hong Kong dollar will last as long as people here want it to, and are content to treat it as a trustworthy store of wealth. If at some future time the renminbi becomes fully convertible and local people use it freely and readily, then the position can be reviewed. There is no reason why the legal system needs to change either. As regards civil and commercial law, everyone feels comfortable with it, and indeed part of the reason so many mainland companies set up in Hong Kong is to enjoy it. Has anyone considered the practicalities of changing the criminal law system? It would require the import of hundreds of judges and magistrates and thousands of policemen to apply the mainland code here, or at least a massive re-education programme for existing personnel. And who is going to teach the seven million plus residents about the different system?
Why bother to change something if it’s not broken? Why do some people assume the government in Beijing is stupid and/or malicious? All the evidence of the past few decades is that in handling Hong Kong and Macao matters the name of the game is pragmatism.
The rules for Hong Kong are straightforward: continue to be useful to China, and never be – or allow others to use us as -- a base for subversion. Provided we adhere to these simple guidelines, there is no reason why the "one country, two systems" formula should not last forever.
We don’t need to wait until 2047 to know what the future holds for us. It will be whatever we ourselves make it. We are building that future right now.