Are We Moving Towards Single Term Chief Executives?

Some might think it a little early to be drawing firm conclusions on the basis of limited evidence, but I feel we have reached the stage where we can legitimately raise the question: is the era of potentially two-term Chief Executives behind us? Will the most any future CE can hope to serve be a single five-year term? And if so, what are the implications for the governance of Hong Kong and, more immediately, the 2012 election.

Our first Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa successfully addressed the key issue of his first term which was to show the people of Hong Kong and indeed the world that Deng Xiaoping's extraordinary idea of "One Country, Two Systems" could in fact work. He did the job and if he had stepped down in 2002 the whole community would probably now be looking on him as a favourite uncle. But instead he chose, or was persuaded, to linger past his sell by date and stumbled into an era when the issues were political and social rather than constitutional. In this environment he was hopelessly out of his depth and had to go barely half way through his second term.

Current Chief Executive Donald Tsang began his term on a wave of genuine affection: the local boy, from a humble background, who made good. And he has, despite an early stumble, wrestled some sort of road map and timetable for dealing with the vexed question of political reform. But despite having a further two years to go to serve out his second term, it is clear that his administration has run out of ideas and momentum. All difficult issues - crazy property prices, a socially destabilizing wealth gap, filthy air etc -- are being relentlessy ducked. Too many of his Ministers seem determined to avoid negative headlines today, at the expense of storing up major problems for tomorrow. But Hong Kong people can see what is happening, and credibility is dribbling away. Not so much a lame duck as a tired one, being pushed back by the current of social pressures.

Against this background we can start to glimpse the outline of the kind of person we need for our next Chief Executive to be elected in 2012. First, he must show clearly that he - or she -- understands the issues which concern Hong Kong people and has ideas for how to address them. Second, he must demonstrate a willingness to confront vested interests, however powerful, if they stand in the way of a harmonious society. Third, he must seize bulls - and their sacred cow partners -- firmly by the horns and deal with them before they create havoc in the China shop. Finally he must be a skilled communicator, able to inspire people of all ages in the wider community.

It will be essential if he is to do these things that he put aside all considerations of a second term. Hong Kong is crying out for long term vision and an action agenda to deliver it even at the expense of short term loss of popularity. Slick PR alone simply will not do.

By common consent the two front runners to be the next CE are Henry Tang and CY Leung. Both have their merits and weaknesses. Henry can claim a long track record in administration, having held two of the top three posts in the Government. He has experience, certainly, but his greatest strength may prove paradoxically to be also his biggest weakness. Too close an association with the two previous CEs may be his Achilles' heel.

CY has managed to distance himself from the present administration despite being the convener of the Unofficial Members of the Executive Council, no mean feat in itself one would have thought. And he has certainly shown he has ideas and is willing to express them. Up to now those messages have not really resonated with the public at large, though there is still time for them to do so, and he is making inroads with some professionals.

Both suffer from what would be a terminal weakness anywhere else: neither has faced the voters and won support in an election.

Beijing is widely thought to prefer someone who can win in 2012 and get re-elected in 2017 so as to guide Hong Kong through the transition to a more democratic system. That would favour candidates now in their 50s. But if the reality on the ground is that a second term is an unlikely prospect whoever wins first time round, then the door may be ajar for a slightly older candidate in 2012. Who better to represent the new more democratic Hong Kong than someone who has previously won an election for the Legislative Council.

It might be time to nip down to the Jockey Club and get $5 each way on Rita Fan.